Saturday, May 15, 2010

Spring Plans


I recently returned to a very green Bishkek and markets full of strawberries and cherries. My short hiatus was a journey to another great mountain range of the world, the Alps. In France and Switzerland I joined friends to ski a portion of the Haute Route (bailed due to rain) and classics such as Aiguilles du Tacul, the Cosmiques Couloir off the north side of the Aiguilles du Midi, and the Grand Cass. Returning to Kyrgyzstan felt like coming home.

For the rest of May and most of June, I am heading to At-Bashy to fully immerse myself in conducting interviews with locals in the At-Bashy area who make their livelihood connected to natural resources. The interviews will be an investigation into the way in which changes in glaciers are having an impact on livelihoods, water security and environmental quality.

I was last in At-Bashy over a month ago and the region was just beginning to melt out after winter with an above average snowfall. Now spring is here and herders are readying their livestock to head to high elevation pastures for the summer.

My many travels this winter proved fruitful in exploring various ranges of the Tien Shan, making many friends and gaining exposure to many different aspects of life in Kyrgyzstan. However, I am looking forward to getting to settle down a bit more and invest myself more deeply in one place.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Historic Data


These graphs show average historic annual temperature and precipitation for the village of At-Bashy. This data comes from stations maintained as part of a much larger network of weather observation stations across the former USSR. Precipitation data dates back to 1927 and temperature data for At-Bashy dates back to 1962, however both datasets have incomplete years of data that were excluded from my graphs. The data does not continue to present day, as most weather stations were abandoned in 1990. In fact today, there are less than 25 weather stations in Kyrgyzstan, just a fraction of what existed several decades ago.


According to the regressions, which I have not analyzed their statistical significance, the data shows an increasing temperature trend and a decreasing precipitation trend. The significance of these trends should not be extended to make generalization about regional trends over the past century. However the data still provides an insight and when coupled with additional data sites will provide a broader glimpse of trends.

Obtaining the data was a process in itself. During the winter I contacted the Kyrgyz Hydro- meteorological Center certain they would be thrilled to provide me with the data I was interested. To my surprise I was informed that the data would be available at $10 US Dollar per year per station. That is a hefty price tag of $4200 for just 4 stations’ data! Unwilling to pay, as I made more contacts I thankfully obtained the data free of charge from several sources including Dr. Ryskul Usubaliev at Central Asia Institute of Applied Geosciences and also from Dr. Chiyuki Narama at Nagoya University in Japan. The problem was there were discrepancies and the data did not match. Recently, Dr. Vladimir Aizen at the University of Idaho made a majority of historic USSR meteorological data available via a web data server at http://www.sci.uidaho.edu/cae/data/index.html. Dr. Aizen and Dr. Narama have both assured me to the accuracy of their data, and being that there data is identical, it is the data I have chosen to use.

The uncertainty in data accuracy is significant because each data value can have a huge effect on the resulting trend. One small difference can greatly exaggerate an increasing trend that could be used to falsely indicate warming. On the reverse, another error could negate an actual positive trend.

This story highlights the delicate nature of numbers and data, as well as questioning the significance that is placed on the results. Beyond questioning the data sources and transcription, I have to wonder about the accuracy of the observation records. Although error in transcription from original sources to digital sources can be overcome, there is no way to overcome original biases from measurement or recorder error.

I will still use the data in my research, but it will be supportive documentation. Coupling the trends of multiple stations in the area should provide a better representation. Additionally, I will be interested to see any correlation between the data and locals’ observations.

National Geographic


The April 2010 National Geographic was a special issue- WATER – Our Thirsty World. One of the feature articles is “The Big Melt”, highlighting that “glaciers in the high heart of Asia feed its greatest rivers, lifelines for two billion people. Now the ice and snow are diminishing”. The article covers all of Central Asia and provides an excellent overview touching on documentation of changes, existing difficulties for locals, different government responses, and possible future impacts for the region.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Jetim-Bel Range- Women`s Kyrgyzstan Expedition

Molly, Jaime and I are just a few days back from an excellent trip exploring the remote Jetim Bel Range, located in Eastern Kyrgyzstan. We were thrilled to get into the mountains after the initial delay due to the political turmoil that unfolded upon Jaime and Molly's arrival in Kyrgyzstan. Our departure was mark with a multitude of absurdly hilarious difficulties mostly involving money. After spending a night in Barksoon, we hired a local driver, Mischa, who dropped us off on the north side of Sueok Pass at 3800m.

In our nine days of exploration we found incredible terrain, but it was blanketed in one of the scariest snowpacks any of us had ever seen. With safety being forefront we still managed to ski- exploring and linking five different glacial drainages from two camps. The relief of the Jetim Bel is not immense, but it is beautiful for ski touring a multitude of steep ridges and baby glaciers filling in all the north facing valleys. We had beautiful weather all days but one. Despite the strong solar radiation, temperatures stayed cool from steady winds and strong diurnal cooling. The long spring days were greatly appreciated.

We had planned to attempt a repeat descent of Sari Tor, a peak climbed and skied by the female explorer Ella Maillart in 1932 on wooden skis. Only days before our departure from Bishkek, we became informed of the presence of two Sari Tor peaks in the Jetim Bel area. Unfortunatley, the Sari Tor indicated on maps and the one we had planned to ski was not the Sari Tor that Ella skied. That Sari Tor is located about 45 km away and is currently off limits as it is part of the Kumtor Gold Mine complex. Many locals did not seem aware of these Sari Tor's existence and it is not indicated on any historic USSR maps. However, following in the spirit of Ella Maillart, on our second day we were able to ski the NW face of our Sari Tor (4481)m, a first descent.

Our descent of Sari Tor marked the beginning of our relationship with descents on western slopes. Almost every east slope we inspected we found to be wind loaded with extremely poor structure and high energy. Due to high hazard and large consequences, we turned away from many beautiful descents. In lieu of making a multitue of steep descents, we were able to complete numerous traverses and ski more conservative lines in all of the central drainages of the Jetim Bel. Our tours included several long ridge traverses, 4 summits over 4500m, one +24km day tour over Sari Pass.



Despite thre remote location of the Jetim-Bel, on a dirt track bisecting the range we encountered over 100 head of horses headed towards their summer pastures already. It was repeated our last day with a herd of cows on the main road, when Mischa was picking us up.

Our hesitations about the snowpack were confirmed when we remotely triggered a Class III avalanche setting up our camp in valley bottom. We had been in the location for over an hour, when we suddenly felt the snowpack collapse and listened to the failure propagate through the entire valley. Within moments, we were watching the entire eastern slope above us come roaring down into the valley. Fortunatley, we had picked our site carefully- even Jaime had measured the alpha angles (the runout distance of an avalanche). The slide stopped about 200 ft from camp and the resulting debris were big enough to bury a car (3-10m). The crown was over 1/2 km long and the slide ran 400m downslope. Our last day, we hiked up the slide path which ran to the ground. We did a crown profile, the culprit was depth hoar on a crust just above the ground. In addition to the poor structure (from examining the layers) there was very poor strenght and a great deal of energy in the snow as indicated in stability tests we conducted.

Reminded why we had been cautious in our descent lines, we headed out to meet Mischa and head back to Bishkek. Molly and Jaime headed back to the states and I departed for Kyrgyzstan for a short hiatus.

Thank you to the Hans Saari Memorial Ski Fund Exploration Grant for their support. The grant is designted to support and expand the boundaries of ski mountaineering and provide a better understanding of mountain cultures.


THE TEAM
Jaime, Ann and Molly


SELECT IMAGES FROM THE EXPEDITION:

The ubiquitous Lada, along Issky- Kul LakeThe last road sign....
The Jetim Bel Range

The team after first descent of Sari Tor (behind)

Molly Speed racing down a glacier Jaime relaxing Molly descending one of the many unnamed glaciers View of Jetim Bel Jaime ascending
View of camp and the slide that sympathetically released in camp from valley bottom

Crown of slide The facets kept getting bigger and bigger...

Molly and horses heading over Sueok Pass

Sunday, April 25, 2010

News

Part of my designation as a Fulbright Grantee is to promote exchange and knowledge between the United States and Kyrgyzstan. The recent events have brought attention to this little landlocked country, but not in the most positive light. Many people, especially in my home valley of Montana, were highly interested in the events unfolding. I hope in my relaying of information about the violence and disorder that occured I was still able to convey the incredible hospitatlity of the people here, the beauty of the land and the young nature of the country. It is too early to say what the new government will bring, but there is already talk of the same corrupt tactics just with different players. Russia's involvement and comments continue to be an source of interest as a new great game continues.

- The Daily Inter Lake Front Row to Revolution
- The Flathead Beacon Amid Political Upheavel, Solace in the Mountains
- I also did an interview with Emilie Ritter of Montana Public Radio which aired on April 11th

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Bye Bye Bishkek!

We are headed to the mountains! After consulting with the U.S. Embassy yesterday we have decided that the safety situation has improved to a level that we are comfortable with. Today we will travel from Bishkek to the small village of Barskoon, on the southern shores of Issyk-Kul Lake. The following day we will head into the Jetim Bel Range!

Saturday, April 10, 2010

Images From Bishkek


April 10th- (Above) Mourners gather in front of the White House laying tribute to the 76 killed

With the central square filled with mourners, Friday and Saturday have been declared official days of mourning in Bishkek. Rings of flowers encirle the final resting locations of the 76 protesters killed by the violence on Wednesday. The opposition, with interim leader Rosa Otunbayeva, are claiming complete control. However, many questions remain with the former president Kurmanbek Bakiev stating he is unwilling to abandon his duties and he remains in the southern part of the country. He lays blames for the deaths on the opposition, however sources have indicated it was the president's brother and sons who issued the orders for violence. Bakiev's family was highly intertwined with the corrupt government. For many locals, it sounds as if a majority of looting that occurred following the revolution was targeted at businesses owned by or affiliated with Bakiev's family. For now the banking system remains frozen as it is believed the president transferred a majority of the country's funds elsewhere. Only a mere $21 million dollars remain in governement accounts. As we spoke with people at the ongoing funerals in front of the White House the mood was somber but anger still lingered at the former president. However, people seem optimistic about the future.

It is unclear how the new leadership will be able to meet the concerns that brought about this conflict to begin with. The recent spikes in electricity rates and widespread corruption throughout the government seem difficult to confront with a meager bank balance and destroyed infrastructure. This is also the second revolt in recent Kyrgyz history. The 2005 Tulip Revolution that put now ousted president Bakiev in power was a people's revolution centered on the same issue of an increasingly corrupt government. Bakiev's administration proved to be even more authoritarian and continued to promote widespread corruption. In asking locals how they know the new government will not continue in the same direction, one kyrgyz woman noted that revolutions might be part of Kyrgyzstan's future until "the government got it right".

April 10th - (Above left) Kyrgyz women describe hope for Kyrgyzstan's future under the new leadership (Above Right) Flowers circle the resting spot of a killed protester

The U.S. Embassy remains closed and the Manas transit center, the U.S. Airbase outside Bishkek, has yet to resume normal operations. Looting has mostly ceased as groups of citizen militia have taken to the streets at night and the military has joined forces with the new leadership. Slowly but surely, daily life is resuming with many small stores opening during the daytime and schools and businesses planning to be open on Monday. For now with banking shut down and rural travel still limited, we continue to sit in limbo in Bishkek waiting for a more clear picture on the security situation.

Friday, April 9, 2010

Different Kind of Storm Day: The 2010 Kyrgyzstan Revolution

THE PLAN WAS… Molly Tyson and Jaime Musnicki, both of Victor Idaho, arrived at the beginning of this past week to join me for an exploratory ski expedition into the Jetim-Bel Range. With support from the Hans Saari Ski Exploration Grant, we were planning to spend 14 days pursuing ski mountaineering objectives in this remote range of the Tien Shan. We planned a departure from Bishkek on April 8th, which provided us a few days for final organizational chaos after Jaime and Molly’s arrival to Kyrgyzstan. From Bishkek we were to travel to the village of Barskoon, on the south shore of Issyk-Kul Lake before traveling via jeep over two 3,500 meter passes to our drop off location at 3700 meters in a high steppe valley just north of the Jetim Bel.

WHAT HAPPENED WAS… On Tuesday April 6th, the day Molly landed in Bishkek, demonstrators took over several government buildings in Talas, located in the far northwest corner of Kyrgyzstan. Via my network of local friends I heard about the events in the early afternoon but it took several hours for word to spread to the streets of Bishkek. The opposition party, Ata-Meken (Fatherland), were calling for protests in Bishkek and across Kyrgyzstan the following day. That evening, as I was riding a bus back to my apartment, dark skies threatened rain and I heard one local say if it rained people probably would not find the motivation to protest.

Wednesday- April 7th
Our day began as any other as protestors started gathering in Bishkek. Mid-morning Molly and I conducted an interview on the impacts of climate change with Dr. Kochumkulova, a local cultural expert. It became clear that things were escalating when the interview was cut short when Dr. Kochumkulova needed to move her car to protect it from protestors. Still, local people were going about their days, so I continued running last minute errands, including buying 2 kiddie sleds for hauling expedition gear from a seven year old Russian boy. Returning to my apartment in the city center banks were closing, the streets were clogged with traffic and my taxi driver starting speaking louder and louder into his cellphone. Turning onto Kievskaya, one of the main streets, our tiny little silver taxi was suddenly the only vehicle insight and we found ourselves facing hundreds of oncoming protestors. My driver pulled over, turned around at told me “Shass, shass (just a minute)”. He hopped out of the taxi, locked the doors and headed into the crowd shaking hands and greeting various protestors whom he clearly knew. After the crowds passed, he drove me the final two blocks home. From the apartment windows, Jaime and Molly witnessed the same crowd pass. My flatmate arrived home within a few minutes. Within an hour smoke from burning buildings filled the sky and gunfire filled the air. We gathered pieces of information about the conflict growing violent from coworkers, friends, local news and the occasional sounds of gunfire. At one point looking down into the street, we watched a group of young boys surround a police car and throw rocks through all the vehicles windows. A shaking policeman with an automatic weapon in hand finally exited the vehicle and temporarily halted the oncoming mob before the car drove away.

April 6th 16:00 - Armed Policeman disperses a crowd of violent protestors

April 6th 16:30 - Smoke billows skyward from the Ministry of Defense

Shortly after darkness, looting began on the streets below. We watched crowds of men smash into all the stores on the streets below us. As crates of oranges spilled onto the streets, new furniture was being pulled out onto the sidewalk and small boys ran by with new stereos. Mobs would move on from businesses but within minutes new mobs would appear to continue the plundering. A thin line seemed to exist and in our neighborhood the looting never transcended into homes. Feeling relatively safe on the 4th floor, we headed to bed as people on the street headed home with new refrigerators and bags of stolen groceries. Jaime awoke in the middle of the night and peered out the window. The streets were swarmed with people taking as many things as they could get their hands on – refrigerators, chairs, desks, skis, huge bouquets of flowers. While earlier in the evening there were mobs of men and very few vehicles, now there were cars lining the road to transport the bounty of the looting. People had shifted focus from destruction to removal.

April 6th 21:35 - (Above)-Protesting turns to looting shortly after dark

Thursday – April 8th

Morning light revealed the extent of the looting. Discarded good and building debris were strewn about the street with wilted roses from the flower shop down the street and orange peels highlighting the mess. As people scavenged through piles for any valuable remains, a group of men took celebratory vodka shots at sunrise, occasionally yelling out “Bakiev is dead” in Kyrgyz. With daylight, the streets started to slowly fill with people stepping out to survey the damage. The first sign of normalcy was sidewalk cleaners making their rounds sweeping their long grass brooms in wide arcs across the streets. The opposition had declared their victory and had placed Rosa Otunbayeva as the interim leader. This seemed by the flight of Kurmanbek Bakiyev, the president, had fled to his home in the south. Our planned departure time for our expedition passed. With roads and all local transport shut down leaving was not only foolish, but also impossible. After establishing that the violence had ended, with some local friends we left the apartment to walk through the neighborhood taking in the extent of the looting. Grocery stores were stripped bare, storefronts destroyed; several government buildings completely destroyed by fire and many businesses around the center were riddled with bullet holes. Other store owners were emptying their inventory preparing for the possibility of another night of looting.

April 7th 11:35 - Scorched to the skeleton, nothing but papers remain at a government building downtown (above left) and debris from looters are all that remain at Narondni, a local chain supermarket (above right)

April 7th 12:35 - (Above) A man looks throw broken shop windows in downtown Bishkek

At the White House, the building that holds the country’s president and parliament, we stopped to observe both the growing crowd and the numerous vehicles that had been rammed into the front gates before being burned. Local Kyrgyz and Russian families walked the streets with us, snapping photos with their cellphones and seeming just as stunned as us. Control of the new party seemed questionable as burning continued at the White House and papers continued to be tossed out the windows of this and other government buildings. By early afternoon, we returned and settled back into the apartment. In our neighborhood things remained quiet through the night, as a citizen militia group patrolled the streets for looters. However, other parties of Bishkek experienced continued violence and gunfire through the night.

April 7th - (Above) Men stand on an abandoned tank to see over the crowds gathered around the Whitehouse

April 7th - (Above) Crowds inspect burned cars in downtown Bishkek

Friday April 9th

Taking the advice of the U.S. Embassy and other knowledgeable locals, we find ourselves still in Bishkek. Our current plan is to hold off at least through the weekend on making any moves towards Barskoon and the mountains. We, along with everyone else, are interested to see how the new government manages re-establishing order and security in the country. From most appearances, on the street, people are continuing on with their lives. Rumors abound about what the weekend will bring. There is speculation the president is attempting to rally support, but there is also talk that soon he will announce his resignation. In the mountains, there is often bad weather that we must sit and wait out in the safety of camp. On this expedition, our ski plans are on hold as we sit in Bishkek waiting out a different type of storm days.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Historic Photographs


Glacier Inventory of the USSR
Published by the Soviets in 1974 as part of an inventory of all the glaciers in the USSR , these historic photographs are of glaciers in the At-Bashy Range. Reference numbers of the glaciers correspond to maps and estimates of size. This summer, I plan to reproduce many of these through repeat photography to provide visual documentation of changes in ice cover. Additional data, including area estimates, from the USSR inventory will aid my analysis on quantifying glacial retreat in the At-Bashy Range. It took a while to find these historic inventories tucked away in local office, but I was thrilled to finally find them. For future work, I will be scanning all of the inventory that covers the Tien Shan and digital copies will be inventoried with The University of Central Asia.





Source: Katalog Lednikov SSSR [Glacier Inventory of the USSR](in Russian) 1974 Centralnaya Aziaya [Central Asia], Tom 14 V 1 Kyrgyzstan Part 6 Katalog Lednikov SSSR [Glacier Inventory of the USSR]

Historical Maps


Glacier Inventory of the USSR
Published in 1974, these historic maps indicate glaciers in the At-Bashy Range, as part of an inventory of all glaciers in the former Soviet Union conducted from 1964-1974. Reference numbers correspond to estimates of size and a few selected glaciers have photograph documentation. Click on the maps to enlarge them.


OVERVIEW MAP




Source: Katalog Lednikov SSSR [Glacier Inventory of the USSR](in Russian) 1974 Centralnaya Aziaya [Central Asia], Tom 14 V 1 Kyrgyzstan Part 6 Katalog Lednikov SSSR [Glacier Inventory of the USSR]