THE SOUTH

Returning from At-Bashy, where for a majority of our time we were completely removed from outside communication, it is devastating to hear about the destruction of lives in the South. We, Dr. Sarah Halvorson and I, were somewhat aware of the situation while it was occurring. However, rumors abounded and we were unaware of magnitude of the situation or failed to believe it.

Back in Bishkek widely circulating rumors are intermixed with facts making it difficult if not impossible to differentiate between the two. I cannot claim high validity to my knowledge, nor can anyone else. The investigation of the events on June 10th in Osh, Jalalabad and across the south is still speculative. However it is widely accepted that it was planned and well organized, most likely by the former president, Bakiev and his supporters. The were able to utilize an existing ethnic tension between Kyrgyz and Uzbek ethnicity and incite violence through incredible manipulation of emotion and fear. Beyond widespread burning of homes and point-black killing, many powerful manipulation tactics were utilized to provoke violence including accusations of Uzbeks raping Kyrgyz children and women. Knowing the difference between accusation and action is faint because the manipulation tactics resulted in many accusations eventually coming to truth. It is difficult to comprehend how this can happen. What complicates the events for me is the fact that several weeks ago wide circulation of a recorded conversation between Janish (Bakiev's brother) and Maxim (Bakiev's son) outlined how to create violence between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. Given this knowledge, I felt certain that the events would not happen since it had been revealed to be a ploy. However I clearly could not comprehend the power of destruction and emotion and it's ability to self perpetuate and rapidly escalate.

Although things are calm in the north, a high level of tension exists as the referendum vote is scheduled to occur on June 27th. The ballot contains two important items to be decided. The first is whether to accept the newly drafted constitution. The second is whether to confirm Rosa Otunbayeva with executive powers until the fall election in October. Despite the individual significance of both these items, they are packaged together in a single vote. The referendum ballot will consist of a single “yes” or “no” vote to either approve the new constitution and accept Rosa Otunbayeva or reject both. I cannot offer any predictions in what events will unfold as I still at a great loss for what has happened in the south.